The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Foreign Exchange Reserves on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2013-2024

Abstract

Over the period from 2013 to 2024, this study examines how inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and foreign exchange reserves impact Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), which is listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange. The JCI functions as a broad measure of stock market performance in Indonesia and reflects broader macroeconomic conditions. This research employs a quantitative approach utilizing time-series data over twelve years. Secondary data were collected from official publications of Bank Indonesia, the Indonesia Stock Exchange, and Yahoo Finance. Analytical procedures include descriptive statistics, classical assumption testing, multiple linear regression, hypothesis testing (t-test and F-test), and coefficient of determination analysis, processed using SPSS. Findings indicate that, partially, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates do not exert a statistically significant effect on the JCI. In contrast, foreign currency reserves demonstrate its positive and significant influence on index. Simultaneously, all macroeconomic variables collectively influence the JCI significantly. The Adjusted R² value of 0.891 suggests that 89.1% of JCI variation is explained by selected macroeconomic variables, while the remaining 10.9% is attributable to additional elements not discussed in this research.